Trump’s preferred price for oil is between $40-$50 based on his social media posts
President Donald Trump has posted more than 200 times about oil prices since he joined Twitter in 2009, with his missives providing some insight on what price he prefers for crude — and it’s not a good level for the U.S. shale industry. Goldman Sachs mined all of Trump’s posts on Twitter, X and his social media platform Truth Social. The bank found that Trump has called for lower oil prices 213 times and higher prices 15 times. The president posts the least about oil prices when U.S. crude trades between $40 and $50 per barrel, suggesting this is his preferred price range, analysts led by Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman, told clients Tuesday. Trump tends to call for lower prices when West Texas Intermediate is trading above $50 per barrel, the Goldman analysts said. He generally calls for higher prices when U.S. crude hits a rock bottom of less than $30 per barrel, often in the context of him wanting more U.S. production, they said. Trump’s trade advisor, Peter Navarro, has said publicly that the president’s “drill, baby, drill” agenda aims to push oil down to $50 a barrel to help fight inflation. The president also tends to post less about sanctions when WTI is in the $60s to $70s, Goldman found. Trump generally posts more about oil prices when U.S. elections are approaching, the bank also observed. “President Trump’s inferred preference for relatively low oil prices directionally supports our view that oil prices are likely to edge lower in 2025-2026,” Struyven told clients. Goldman right now is forecasting that U.S. crude will average $56 per barrel this year and $52 per barrel in 2026. The president’s preferred price based on his social media posts would hurt the U.S. shale industry . Shale producers need a price of at least $51 to simply breakeven, according to Goldman. U.S. supply growth tends to slow when U.S. crude drops into the $60s and starts approaching producers’ break-even prices, according to the investment bank. U.S. crude oil closed at a four-year low of $57.13 on May 5 as Trump’s tariffs have sparked fears of a recession that will hit demand and OPEC+ rapidly boosts supply to the market. Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice warned last week that U.S. shale production has likely peaked and will start to decline due to low oil prices. Shale producers were scathing in their criticism of Trump’s tariff and energy policies in anonymous responses to a March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The U.S. benchmark was trading above $63 per barrel on Wednesday. Prices have bounced back somewhat this week after the U.S. and China agreed to significantly reduce their tariffs, raising hopes that economic growth will rebound. Goldman expects U.S. crude supply in the lower 48 states to decline this year and next.
